000 AGXX40 KNHC 121802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 202 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS GULF WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO 24N90W. A SECONDARY FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. IN GENERAL...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER NE WATERS THU. MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF REGION WITH 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH TUE. BY WED...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SE AND SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 4 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ON THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. BY LATE FRI...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 22N WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH WED. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N52W TO 08N55W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS AS WELL AS E-SE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM E OF THE WAVE AND NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 60 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AFTERNOON. BASED ON MARINE GUIDANCE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI. THE LIGHTER THEN NORMAL TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY TUE...THEN PULSE AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF 25N. THESE WINDS COINCIDE WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SE AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A SECONDARY FRONT FOLLOWS THIS FRONT AND STRETCHES FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE COAST LATE TUE WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N78W TO NE FLORIDA EARLY ON WED...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO SE FLORIDA WED NIGHT. INCREASING S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS NEAR 8 FT. A THIRD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS THU WILL EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.