000
AGXX40 KNHC 120705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
305 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS GULF WATERS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR NAPLES
FLORIDA TO 24N92W. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NE GULF...ASSOCIATED
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL OFF THE COAST
OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA CENTERED NEAR 31N80W. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN THEN DISSIPATE FROM EXTREME SW FLORIDA TO 22N93W
TONIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WATERS LATE
TUE...THEN DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER NE WATERS THU. MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WITH 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH TUE. BY
WED...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 15 KT ACROSS THE SE AND SOUTH CENTRAL
WATERS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 4 FT. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH WED. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS AROUND 6-7 FT
THROUGH TUE. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AND MON IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A MORE NORMAL TRADE WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE BASIN WED AND THU.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA CENTERED NEAR 31N80W IS SUPPORTING A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLANTIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SE AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A SECOND FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE
COAST TONIGHT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA TUE...AND
WEAKEN FROM 31N72W TO NE BAHAMAS EARLY WED. INCREASING S TO SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT AND TUE. MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS
NEAR 8 FT. A THIRD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS THU WILL EXTEND
FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU EVENING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.