000
AGXX40 KNHC 110707
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
307 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY 
WINDS N OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA 
TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 23N96W. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY REACH THE 
SE GULF THROUGH MON WITH A PUSH OF COOL DRIER AIR. SEAS EXPECTED 
TO BE 2-3 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE. 
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE 
NIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE WED. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W EXITING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL 
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. 
MARINE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WAVE SLOWING MON AND TUE AS IT REACHES 
CENTRAL AMERICA. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS AROUND 6-7 FT THROUGH 
WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERLY WINDS 
TONIGHT AND MON IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM 31N78W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA 
IS SLOWLY PUSHING SE INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S-SW 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NW AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT WINDS WILL 
GENERALLY REMAIN 10-15 KT EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE SHUNTED E OF THE FRONT TODAY SOUTH 
OF A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD...ROUGHLY N OF 27N E OF 77W. 
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TSTMS. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 
31N76W TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATER TODAY THEN STALL FROM THE FL 
STRAITS TO 31N75W MON. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS 
IN N WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.