000 AGXX40 KNHC 101823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 223 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND AHEAD OF THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF. MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 2 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY REACH THE SE GULF THROUGH MON...WITH A PUSH OF COOL DRIER AIR. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 3 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON SUN. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT SUN THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE WED. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W/75W WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. MARINE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WAVE SLOWING MON AND TUE. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS AROUND 6-7 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE COASTS OF NW VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERLY WINDS SUN INTO MON OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATER NEXT WEEK...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/THE GULF OF HONDURAS OR THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. IF THIS OCCURS...INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 28N79W AT 1200 UTC IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING EASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE...THEN LIFT NE OF THE AREA ON SUN. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ACROSS THE N WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO 28N70W TO 29N74W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING A COLD FRONT INTO NW WATERS TONIGHT...WHILE THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINKS UP WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ACCELERATES TO THE NE SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE EXTENDING FROM 31N76W TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY SUN MORNING THEN STALL FROM THE FL STRAITS TO 31N75W ON MON. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.