000 AGXX40 KNHC 100708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 308 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATER TODAY...WITH A PUSH OF COOL DRIER AIR SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SE GULF THROUGH MON. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT SUN THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WAVE SLOWING MON AND TUE...THEN MORPHING THE WAVE INTO A LOW IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ECMWF SLOWS THE PROGRESS OF THE WAVE WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT SEAS AROUND 6-7 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERLY WINDS SUN INTO MON OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER THE SW N ATLC TO A WEAK LOW NEAR VERO BEACH FL. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT...WHILE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS N-NE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING A COLD FRONT INTO NW WATERS SAT NIGHT... WHILE THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINKS UP WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ACCELERATES TO THE NE SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SUN AND WILL BEGIN TO STALL FROM THE FL STRAITS TO 31N75W MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE FRONT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO FRESHEN TUE NIGHT NE OF THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE NEAR THE WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...THEN DECREASE TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.