000
AGXX40 KNHC 081736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
136 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR
WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN...ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF. SURFACE
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM NEAR MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA TO JUST N OF
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22.5N86W WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE WNW
THROUGH FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE NE GULF SAT
MORNING...MOVING SE OF THE BASIN SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND 1-3
FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRES SETTING UP IN THE NW GULF IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR
WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES JUST NE OF THE BASIN COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES AND RESULTANT 7-8 FT SEAS IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS. THE
PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE E
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING AS WELL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO
BE CONFINED VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT SUN
THROUGH MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS
FOLLOWS THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE AXIS HAVING SHIFTED W OF THE E
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE SE PORTION
OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND TO ACROSS
VENEZUELA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. A SURGE OF FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF
7-9 FT HAVE FOLLOWED IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS HIGH PRES RIDGING
BUILDS IN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE BY
THE WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR
WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN. NE SWELL PF 4-7 FT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRONTAL 
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM 31N68W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE E OF THE BASIN BY SAT NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW PORTION SAT MORNING...REACHING FROM 31N74W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH MON.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT
ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N...MOVING ACROSS ZONE AMZ127 TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS AMZ125 AND AMZ123 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL PREVAIL.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.