000 AGXX40 KNHC 071748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 148 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE SW HALF OF THE GULF AND 2-4 FT SEAS IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER IN THE E CENTRAL AND SE GULF TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THIS TROUGHING WILL STALL OUT LATER TODAY THEN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE WNW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF BY SAT MORNING...SINKING S-SE AND CLEARING THE BASIN BY LATE SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT...LIGHT WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES JUST NE OF THE BASIN COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND RESULTANT 7-9 FT SEAS IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO BE CONFINED VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 56W IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACCOMPANYING IT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT BRINGING SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. THE WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA FRI. A SURGE OF FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAVE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND DIMINISHING BY THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE TROUGHING CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO 27N78W TO 25N80.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE E REACHING FROM 31N70W TO 27N77W THU MORNING...THEN FROM 31N67W TO 27N73W THU EVENING... THEN FROM 31N65W TO 27N71W FRI AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION BY SAT MORNING REACHING FROM 31N74W TO 27N77W SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N...MOVING ACROSS ZONE AMZ127 TODAY AND TONIGHT... THEN ACROSS AMZ125 AND AMZ123 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL PREVAIL. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.