000 AGXX40 KNHC 070804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 404 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LAST OF SURFACE TROUGHS HAS PUSHED INTO THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE W N ATLC AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOW DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE SE GULF BEFORE STALLING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN EARLY THU. WEAK BUT BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST TROUGH TO OVER THE GULF AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NE GULF EARLY SAT AND EXITING THE E GULF SUN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WAS LITTLE VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE GULF BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES EXTENDS OVER THE SW N ATLC JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM 1020 MB HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N56W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS...WHILE BROAD LOWER PRES IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE E PAC REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF COLOMBIA AND N OF NW VENEZUELA THROUGH SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 7-9 FT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE NWPS SEEMED TO CAPPED THE SEAS ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS MODELS AGREE WITH STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY TO NEAR GALE FOR THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ARE APPROACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND WILL CROSS 55W INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN EARLY THU. THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL SPLIT FROM THE MAIN WAVE ENERGY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE MAIN WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON A MORE WWD TRACK APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FRI NIGHT AND CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE THE N PORTION AS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ON A MORE NWD TRACK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS/SQUALLS/AND SCATTERED TSTMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 7-9 FT BEHIND THE WAVE N OF 15N WED...WITH MIXED NE AND SE SWELL OF 7-10 FT COVERING THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL BLEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LAST OF SURFACE TROUGHS HAS PUSHED INTO THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE W N ATLC AND WILL MOVE SEWD REACHING 31N71W TO S FLORIDA WED NIGHT AND 31N TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. EARLY SAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1020 MB HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA NEAR 26N56W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THU BECOMING WLY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EDD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELL STILL ASSOCIATED WITH DISTANT AND DECAYING HURRICANE JOAQUIN AND CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH 8-10 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU...TO LESS THAN 8 FT BASIN WIDE BY FRI NIGHT. THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTENSITY OF THE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH STEMMING FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE UKMET DEVELOPS A CLOSE LOW AS DOES THE CANADIAN...WENT WITH THE GFS THAT KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH. THE NWPS SEEMED TO CAPPED THE SEAS EARLY ACROSS THE N BASIN BEFORE THE AFFECTS OF JOAQUIN ARE COMPLETELY E OF THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.