000 AGXX40 KNHC 051842 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 242 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENTIRE REGION CURRENTLY UNDER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...WITH N-NE WINDS W OF 90W AND N-NW WINDS E OF 90W. EXPECT A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND AN MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N79W TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE BEFORE THE LOW KICKS OUT NE INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL PRVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WED THROUGH FRI...AND ALLOW EASTERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. SOUTHERN TRAILING PORTIONS OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY PUSH INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LITTLE EFFECT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA WED THROUGH FRI...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADES AND ALLOW A MORE NORMAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO RETURN TO THE REGION AFTER TROUGHING NORTH OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N79W EXITS THE NW TROPICAL ATLC TUE EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W BETWEEN 10N-20N IS WELL DEPICTED IN GFS MODEL GUIDANCE OWING TO ITS DEEP LAYER CHARACTER...AND MODELS SHOW THE WAVE REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY WED THEN MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THU...AND CROSSING 80W FRI AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND SURGE AND INCREASE IN SHOWERS AS THE WAVE AXIS MOVES ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL BLEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE JOAQUIN...NOW WELL NE OF THE AREA...CONTINUES TO MOVE N-NE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE OUTER EFFECTS OF THE HURRICANE... INCLUDING FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND LARGE NE SWELL... WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH WED OR THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N79W...EXTENDING FROM 31N76W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL PUSH EASTWARD TO REACH FROM 31N72W TO NORTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE...REACH FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W TUE EVENING AND EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 26N80W BY WED EVENING. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN EXTREME NW PORTION ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS ACROSS SC-GA COASTAL WATERS WILL GENERATE N-NE SWELL THAT WILL MOVE SWD TOWARD FL INTO COASTAL AND NEAR COASTAL WATERS... AND PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD TO W OF THE BAHAMAS AND SE FL WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.