000 AGXX40 KNHC 041906 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 306 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS GULF E OF 90W IS UNDER MODERATE NW TO W FLOW BEHIND A WASHED OUT FRONTAL TROUGH SPIRALING OUT OF AROUND W PERIPHERY OF JOAQUIN AND ACROSS NW CARIB. SEAS ACROSS E PORTIONS 3-5 FT WITHIN 6 FT MAX POSSIBLE SE PORTIONS. W OF 90W RIDGING STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM TEXAS SWD ACROSS W PORTIONS AND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD S TO NEAR VERACRUZ NEXT 48 HRS. SEAS W HALF 2-4 FT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE FLOW. CUT OFF UPPER LOW ACROSS NE GULF AND ADJACENT SE STATES HAS BECOME WNW TO ESE ALIGNED AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED MODEST CAA ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS OF GULF WHERE MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. MODELS ON REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TREND TOWARD CONSENSUS OF ENSEMBLE MEANS...SWEEPING A SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH SWD ACROSS NE PORTIONS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO SE PORTIONS AND STALLING ALONG N COAST OF YUCATAN TO EXTREME S FL BY WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS ACROSS N AND NE PORTIONS WITH MAX SEAS WILL PERSISTING 4-5 FT 25-27N E OF 88W THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS SE TO S FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS NE CARIB TO 72W AND FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SUCKED INTO THE EXITING JOAQUIN...WITH ENHANCED FLOW THROUGH THE PASSAGES TO AROUND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CUT OFF UPPER LOW ACROSS NE GULF TRAILS TROUGH TO THE SW AND ACROSS NW CARIB TO BELIZE AND REFLECTED AT SFC WITH DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW AND A CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM E END OF CUBA TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS AND EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH MON. WEAK RIDGE NOW BEGINNING TO BUILD W ACROSS ATLC UNDERNEATH JOAQUIN AND WILL BUILD WWD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE HURRICANE WARNING LIFTS OUT TO THE NNE...AND INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SE PORTIONS TODAY SHIFTING INTO S CENTRAL PORTIONS BY MON NIGHT AND TUE FOR RETURN TO FRESH TRADES AND NOCTURNAL MAX...ALBEIT A BIT TO THE E OF CLIMO POSITION AND ALONG ABOUT 70-72W. DEVELOPING RIDGE ALONG 19-20N ATTM WITH HIGH CENTERED NEAR 19N55W YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT. ELY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO AREA BY MON NIGHT AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND LIFTS N TO ALONG 23N AND SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT IN MIXED SWELL. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AREA WED MORNING...WITH ECMWF CURRENTLY PROPAGATING MAJORITY OF WAVE ENERGY WWD AND INTO CARIB FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WIND SURGE...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ATTEMPT AT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS AS WAVE REACHES NEAR 55W...WHICH TRANSLATES LOW AND WIND SURGE MORE NW AND MISSES NE CARIB. THERE IS A SECOND WAVE JUST BEHIND THIS WAVE DESCRIBED THAT WILL INTERACT IN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC AND LETS SEE HOW MODELS RESOLVE THIS. IT MAY BE THAT THE CYCLOGENESIS IS THE SECOND WAVE ENERGY RIDING BACK SIDE OF FIRST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS HURRICANE WARNING JOAQUIN HAS BEGUN ITS ACCELERATION TO THE NE AND IS ALSO WEAKENING...AND WILL MOVE OUT OF AREA BY 24 HRS. TRANSLATION SPEED APPROACHING 20 KT WILL NOW ALLOW FOR TRAPPED FETCH WAVE GROWTH AND EXCEPTIONAL SEAS ACROSS THE ERN SEMICIRCLE. TRAILING TAIL OR CONVERGENCE ZONE SPIRALING OUT TO THE SW EXTENDS INTO TURKS AND CAICOS ATTM AND WILL SWEEP E AND NE TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. NW TO WNW SWELL FROM W PORTIONS OF HURRICANE WARNING TO AFFECT SE PORTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AND PROPAGATE SE INTO TROPICAL ATLC WATERS OF LEEWARDS AND THROUGH PASSAGES. E TO SE SWELL GENERATE FROM N PORTIONS OF JOAQUIN AND WIND FIELD OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS MIXING WITH HURRICANE WARNING SWELL TO PRODUCE AND EXAGGERATED AND TREMENDOUS WAVE FIELD ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF JOAQUIN...WHERE 12 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT ACROSS COASTAL WATERS OF CAROLINAS...AND BUOY 41010 WELL OFFSHORE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLUCTUATING 10-11 FT PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH JOAQUIN TO LIFT OUT OF AREA NEXT 24-36 HOURS...BUT WITH PRES GRADIENT TO THE N AND NW OF IT TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE NELY SWELL DIRECTED BACK AT NW WATERS AND SE U.S. COASTS THROUGH MON. COMPLEX LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS S CAROLINA AND NC COASTAL WATERS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN GULF SECTION WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY NEXT 48-72 HRS AND SWEEP A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND FL...AND ALLOW STRONG TO NEAR GALE WARNING WINDS ACROSS SC-GA COASTAL WATERS TO GENERATE NNE SWELL TO MOVE SWD ACROSS FL NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS...AND LIKELY W OF BAHAMAS AND INTO SE FL. SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND BRIEF GALE WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE... AND SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO OCCUR N OF THE AREA AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS OF CAROLINAS...WITH GFS DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW SINKING S INTO WATERS OFFSHORE OF JAX...WITH CHANCE FOR GALE WARNINGS EXTENDING S TO 30N MON NIGHT. STRONG SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP TO SE OF ELONGATED TROUGHING AND FRONTAL ZONE DURING THIS TIME AND WILL INCREASE SEAS 8-10 FT NE ZONES MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. OVERALL CONFUSED AND HIGH SEAS TO PREVAIL ACROSS NRN ZONES THROUGH EARLY WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.