000 AGXX40 KNHC 030856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 456 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN AND IS NOW ACROSS NW CARIB LEAVING NW TO N WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS MOST OF GULF E OF 90W THIS MORNING...WHILE RIDGING SOUTHWARD ALONG TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS TO NEAR VERACRUZ YIELDING N TO NNE WINDS ATTM. CAA ACROSS W SEMICIRCLE OF UPPER LOW OVER NE GULF AIDING IN STRONGER WINDS ACROSS N COASTAL WATERS AS DEPICTED BY OVERNIGHT SCAT PASSES WITH SEAS 5-7 FT...POSSIBLY TO 8 FT N OF 27N AND E OF 89W. THIS PATTERN TO PREVAIL TODAY THEN GRADIENT WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN AS JOAQUIN LIFTS OUT TO THE NNE AND WINDS BACK MORE NW TO W ACROSS E PORTIONS. UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT SFC LOW AND ELONGATED TROUGH BY MON ACROSS GA-SC COASTS AND INTO NE GULF THAT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAINTAIN N TO NE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS HIGHLY WEIGHTED ON ECMWF THROUGH DAY 3 CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE CARIB E OF 70W THIS MORNING WITH GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OVERNIGHT AND NOW MOVING INTO GULF OF HONDURAS AND KICKING OFF TSTMS. STRONG SWLY FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS ERN CUBA AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY UNDERDONE. NWLY FLOW THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL EXPECTED TO RAISE SEAS TO 4-5 FT TODAY AND REMAIN UP THROUGH AFTERNOON N AND NE OF JAMAICA BUT OTHERWISE...TROUGH ACROSS W PORTIONS TO SHIFT GRADUALLY ESE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SE FLOW ACROSS E CARIB TO FRESHEN TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE JOAQUIN DISCONNECTS FROM REGIONAL LLVL FLOW AND ELY TRADES RETURN TO SE CARIB TURNING NE ACROSS SW PORTIONS. MODEST ATLC RIDGING WILL BUILD W TO 70W UNDERNEATH THE EXITING JOAQUIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES E AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF HURRICANE JOAQUIN HAS FINALLY BEGUN THE ANTICIPATED NE MOTION THIS MORNING AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM AND THE LINGERING LOW S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC VERY WELL AND HAVE BASED FORECAST FOR BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ON IT. HRCN SWELL HAS LIKELY PUNCHED THROUGH SOME OF THE NARROW PASSAGES IN SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS PAST 36 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO ALSO GET THROUGH PROVIDENCE PASSAGE TODAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF SE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. LONG W TO WNW FETCH BETWEEN CUBA AND BAHAMA BANKS PAST 24 HRS ALSO YIELDING WNW SWELL HEADED TOWARD NW COAST OF HISPANIOLA. WELL TO THE N AND NW OF JOAQUIN...BUOYS AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOWING SEAS TO 15 FT AS FAR N AS 28N AND 12 FT SEAS IN MIXED ESE SWELL FROM LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXING WITH HURRICANE SWELL FOR VERY LARGE SEAS MOVING INTO COASTAL WATERS OF SE AND MID ATLC STATES. AS JOAQUIN LIFTS NNE AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NEXT 24 HRS A TRAPPED FETCH SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP AND GENERATE VERY HIGH SEAS THAT WILL HIT BERMUDA VERY HARD AFTER 36 HOURS. UPPER LOW ACROSS NE GULF ATTM TO CARVE OUT SFC LOW AND ELONGATED TROFFING THAT WILL MERGE WITH VERY WET FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY ALONG E COAST AND ROTATE CYCLONICALLY WITH THE EXITING JOAQUIN MON AND TUE AND SHIFT SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUE-WED...WITH STRONG NNE WINDS BUILDING BEHIND IT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.