000 AGXX40 KNHC 010625 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED LATEST TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE A COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP... BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE WATERS W OF THE TROUGH AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE NW WATERS...2-3 FT OVER THE SW WATERS AND 1-2 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH FRI BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SE WATERS FRI NIGHT AND DISSIPATING THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED LATEST TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT TO MODERATE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...2-3 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...1-2 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS HAS REPLACED THE RIDGE THAT IS TYPICALLY OVER THESE WATERS. THIS IS RESULTING IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING TRADE WIND FLOW THAT IS WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WIND FLOW AROUND HURRICANE JOAQUIN NEAR THE BAHAMAS IS RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS WINDS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS MAY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS RELATED TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN AFTER DAY 3 WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST FOR JOAQUIN WINDS. USED LATEST TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS CENTERED NEAR NEAR 23.8N 73.1W AT 01/0300Z WITH WINDS OF 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF JOAQUIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... EXPECT LARGE SEAS TO EXPAND OUTWARD FROM JOAQUIN AFFECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. FORECAST CONDITIONS AND TRACK IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...AND REFER TO THE MOST RECENT ADVISORY FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION. JOAQUIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SHIFT N OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER FROM THE AREA...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO START TO IMPROVE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI. HURRICANE WARNING FRI NIGHT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO FRI. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.