000 AGXX40 KNHC 291847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 247 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS IS PROVIDING SUPPORT TO 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRES CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N93W. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES THAT MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACCORDINGLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND BUOY/PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS ONLY INDICATE LIGHT TO GENTLE SW BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IN THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS COAST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW PRES TO FILL AND BECOME A TROUGH ORIENTED EAST TO WEST. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THU AND FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THU...AND REACHING FROM THE BIG BEND AREA TO THE N CENTRAL GULF TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY EARLY FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS GFS REASONING ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS TO FUNNEL ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BY EARLY FRI. NO OTHER MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT ARE NOTED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ELSEWHERE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS USUALLY NORTH OF THE REGION RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE STRONGER TRADE WIND FLOW HAS BEEN DISPLACED BY T.S. JOAQUIN NOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS RESULTING IN LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY BECOMES DISPLACED FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. ASIDE FROM LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER UNUSUAL IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE ANOMALOUS SW TO W WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF JOAQUIN...THE SW FLOW MAY BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. THE UKMET IS FORECASTING SW WINDS TO 25 NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY FRI. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND OFFICAL NHC FORECAST FOR JOAQUIN. WINDS. LATEST TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW CONFIDENCE. THE FORECAST FOR THE SW ATLC IS DEPENDENT UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF T.S. JOAQUIN...NOW CENTERED ABOUT 250 NM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN TURN NORTH. LONG PERIOD NE TO E SWELL IS ALSO IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 25N...THE RESULT OF A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AMONG MAJOR MODELS WITH THE DETAILS OF TRACK...INTENSITY AND TIMING NOT ONLY OF JOAQUIN BUT ALSO THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENTS MARINE INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLC EXPOSURES OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS SHOULD BE AWARE OF HIGHER SEAS ON THE PERIPHERY OF JOAQUIN THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS BEFORE THE STORMS MOVES SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE STORM AND ITS EFFECTS SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.