000 AGXX40 KNHC 290711 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 309 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. DEEP LAYERED LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY 1006 MB SFC LOW SE OF GALVESTON. THE ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS PIVOTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NE GULF. A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS...1007 MB CENTERED JUST S OF PENSACOLA AND A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N84W ARE MOVING NE AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE W COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. RECENT ASCAT A AND ASCAT B PASSES OVER THE ERN GULF INDICATED THAT THE WINDS E OF THE SURFACE LOWS HAVE DROPPED TO 20-25 KT AND THEREFORE THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 0600 UTC. SOUTHERLY SQUALLS OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME ERN GULF WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THE LOW PRES AREAS MOVE FURTHER INLAND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH AND WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF. THE LOW PRES OVER THE NW GULF WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF...LEAVING A DRIER PATTERN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE W FLOW VEERING NW TO N. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THU...AND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THU NIGHT AND FRI NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR VERACRUZ. WINDS VEER OVER THE W GULF SAT AND DECREASE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT A AND B PASSES INDICATED MODERATE TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W . IT APPEARS THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS T.S JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO SPIN UP SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF JOAQUIN AND THE PRESENCE OF GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE SW N ATLC SHOULD KEEP SUBNORMAL TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND TCM WINDS. LATEST TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNS THE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN. JOAQUIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. CURRENTLY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NE SWELL GENERATED FROM A LARGE FETCH AREA OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WATERS HAS REACHED THE ENTIRE AREA N OF THE BAHAMAS. WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SWELL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA MIXING IN WITH WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS GENERATED BY JOAQUIN. AS JOAQUIN SHIFTS N OF THE AREA LATE THU AND FRI...LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT WILL PREVAIL NE OF THE BAHAMAS INTO FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA FRI INTO SAT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS TO 7 FT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE PERIPHERAL WINDS AROUND JOAQUIN IS A GENERAL BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.