000 AGXX40 KNHC 280707 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 307 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOCUSED ON TWO SEPARATE LOWS...FIRST A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 28N94W AND THE SECOND A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W. ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE NW GULF LOW WITH A LARGER AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND IS OCCURRING WITHIN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG S-SE WINDS. GIVEN THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF 87W AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF...SEAS ARE RANGING 4 TO 6 FT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING WINDS MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH SEAS RANGING 2 TO 4 FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW OFF YUCATAN MOVING NORTHWARD BUT WEAKENING...LEAVING THE OTHER LOW NEARLY STATIONARY. THE LOW IN THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO/S TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NE AS A TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING THE LOW TO WEAKEN AS WELL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH ADHERES BETTER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. SURFACE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA IS BEING SQUEEZED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRES BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG FLOW IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PULSES OF STRONGER TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH SE WINDS ARE NOTED AS WELL NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...FLOWING INTO LOW PRES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND REMAIN IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE LEVEL BEYOND LATE MONDAY. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. T.D. ELEVEN...A 1006 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N69W. CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND CONTINUES TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 12-24 HOURS. THE FORECAST FOR T.D. ELEVEN IS TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY NW AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG TO NEAR GALE EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL IN TURN GENERATE SWELL IN 8 TO 12 FT MOVING INTO THE WATERS N OF 29N E OF 76W THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.