000 AGXX40 KNHC 271845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF. LATEST TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ARE FORMING IN THE GULF CURRENTLY. ONE IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1007 MB. THE OTHER IS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALSO WITH A PRES OF 1007 MB. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E FLOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WITH GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE RANGING 2 TO 4 FT OUTSIDE OF THE N CENTRAL GULF WHERE THEY ARE 3 TO 5 FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW OFF YUCATAN MOVING NORTHWARD BUT WEAKENING...LEAVING THE OTHER LOW NEARLY STATIONARY. THE LOW IN THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO/S TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NE AS A TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING THE LOW TO WEAKEN AS WELL. THE UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE REMAIN AN OUTLIER SHOWING THIS LOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF WITHOUT WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH ADHERES BETTER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. SURFACE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA IS BEING SQUEEZED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRES BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA AND T.D. IDA FARTHER EAST. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PULSES OF STRONGER TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED AS WELL NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...FLOWING INTO LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER AWAY. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF. LATEST TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. 1011 MB LOW PRES IS OBSERVED NEAR 27N69W. CONVECTION IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS LOW MAY DEVELOP FURTHER TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THERE AFTER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...BUT NEITHER APPRECIABLY DEVELOPED IT. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL IN TURN GENERATE SWELL IN 8 TO 10 FT MOVING INTO THE WATERS N OF 27N E OF 70W THROUGH TUESDAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.