000 AGXX40 KNHC 251816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HAND EDITS FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM 27N90W TO 20N92W. THIS TROUGH IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN REGIONAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS... PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NE PART. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN. MODERATE E WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH 2 TO 4 FT...WITH LIGHT E WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT ELSEWHERE. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES COULD FORM BY MON OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ON THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES...WITH FORECAST SEAS TO 10-12 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HAND EDITS FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT PULSING WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W/86W GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED E TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT... DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HAND EDITS FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE FAR W WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO 25N80W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER-LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N68W CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E WATERS...MAINLY E OF 70W. FOR THE FORECAST...A WEAK RIDGE WILL PERSIST E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION. SWELLS OF 8-10 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS WILL INVADE THE NE PART OF AREA SUN THROUGH MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.