000 AGXX40 KNHC 250801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 401 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A BROAD TROUGH IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN REGIONAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AHEAD A SHORT WAVE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE E WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH 2 TO 4 FT...WITH LIGHT E WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT ELSEWHERE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A LITTLE MORE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SHARPER AND MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE S CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY...THERE IS NO CLEAR CONSENSUS ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OR MOVEMENT. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS FOLLOWING THE GFS A LITTLE MORE IN TIMING AND POSITION...SHOWING LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE N EAST GULF BY EARLY TUE...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCE IN INTENSITY. THE UKMET AND THE EC ENSEMBLE HINT AT A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION AND ARE ALSO WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE GFS BUT MODIFIED TO LIMIT WIND AND SEA DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT PULSING WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED E TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO WEST PALM BEACH. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 24N65W...CREATING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITS CENTER. FOR THE FORECAST...RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. ASSOCIATED SWELL TO 8 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREAS N OF 26N E OF 70W MON AND TUE...SUBSIDING BY MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.