000 AGXX40 KNHC 241756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 156 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HAND EDITS FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS WHILE A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N89W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18.5N93.5W. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WEAK LOW PRES LOCATED JUST OFF NE FLORIDA IS RESULTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT PER BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF REGION PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH SAT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH SUN. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES COULD FORM BY MON OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. ALTHOUGH UPPER- LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE THERE...SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SUN THROUGH AT LEAST MON NIGHT. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ON THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES...WITH FORECAST SEAS TO 10-12 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HAND EDITS FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT PULSING WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED E TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HAND EDITS FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 30N80W. A TROUGH CONTINUES SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 26N83.5W. SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ARE STILL SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS JUST OFF NE FLORIDA W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PERSISTING UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...PARTICULARLY E OF 70W. AN ALTIMETER PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SEAS OF 5-7 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE LOW PRES AND FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS THROUGH SUN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. LATE SUN INTO MON...THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS COULD BRING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.