000 AGXX40 KNHC 240807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 407 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HAND EDITS FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND DE- AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY...JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NW GULF THEN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AND SUN. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE TO THE EXTENT THAT THERE IS BROAD CONSENSUS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISCORD WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AND THE NOW LESS AGGRESSIVE UKMET...CALLING FOR LOW PRES TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN SUNDAY...THEN DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 25 TO 30 KT ON THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES...WITH FORECAST SEAS TO 12-13 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT PULSING WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SAT...ALLOWING INCREASED E TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRES MOVES NORTH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST NWPS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 30N79W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW EARLIER FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WEST OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. THE LOW PRES AND FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS ITS SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS OUT AND LIFTS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAVE GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.