000
AGXX40 KNHC 231821
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
221 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND EXTENDS
FROM 29N86W TO 22N89W. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TODAY. DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY BEFORE RE-DEVELOPING TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGING N OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
REGION WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.

LOOKING AHEAD...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES COULD FORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE POSSIBLE
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT
AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT BY MON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT PULSING WINDS IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND
8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MID
WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
BY SAT...ALLOWING INCREASED E TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR
33N75W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT W OF THE FRONT WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT OFF NE FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TODAY
AND A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST EXTENDING FROM 31N79W TO
29N81W THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST E OF
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID WEEK. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
OUTPUT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.