000
AGXX40 KNHC 220758
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF FROM NEAR PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA TO 29N93W WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN TAPER OFF. OTHERWISE LITTLE
SHOWER OR TSTMS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A PERSISTENT WEAK
PRES PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS THROUGH SAT. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRES TO FORM OVER THE SW GULF OR YUCATAN
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND
INTENSITY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE POSSIBLE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS.

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
DIMINISHED TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND TROPICAL N
ATLC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE OFF COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI...DRIFTING
NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL
OUTPUT REGARDING THE PRECISE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH
OR LOW PRES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT INDICATING
INCREASED E TO SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT INTO SUN.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA NEAR 32N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FARTHER SOUTH...A
WEAK RIDGE REACHES EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 25N TO THE EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT NE FLOW
FUNNELING ALONG THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTLINES REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS 30N OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER DATA
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION ELSEWHERE. THE LOW PRES WILL TRACK WEST ALONG
31N TO 32N THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW THE NE WINDS BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE
COASTLINE TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY EARLY WED OFF NE FLORIDA
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...DIMINISHING THU AS THE LOW DISSIPATES.
ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PERSIST. NO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.