000
AGXX40 KNHC 211731
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
131 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS.

A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MANAGED TO BARELY SLIDE
OFFSHORE INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OUT AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TUE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE LITTLE SHOWER OR TSTM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE N
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT ALLOWING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND TUE. THE PERSISTENT
WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS.

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
DIMINISHED TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND TROPICAL N
ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED OFF COLOMBIA WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK. SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI...DRIFTING NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN THROUGH
SAT.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR31.5N71W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW NORTHWEST OF THE
TROUGH...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. 
A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FLARING WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE
TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHARP UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK RIDGING REMAINS DISPLACED SOUTHWARD ALONG ROUGHLY
23N/24N EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. BY TUE...HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR 
INCREASING N-NE FLOW W OF THE TROUGHING...WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS BY WED MORNING PERSISTING INTO EARLY THU AS THE
TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE NW PORTION. THESE WINDS AND FETCH WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 7-8 FT OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK IN TO THE WEEKEND AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.
ELSEWHERE...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN MODEST WINDS AND
SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.