000
AGXX40 KNHC 210800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST GET A
REINFORCING PUSH FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF LATER TODAY BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH TUE.
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TODAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE LITTLE NO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT ALLOWING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
AND TUE. THE PERSISTENT WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS.

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
DIMINISHED TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND TROPICAL N
ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED OFF COLOMBIA WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK. SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN THU...DRIFTING NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN THROUGH FRI.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 31N72W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING N OF 27N EAST OF THE TROUGH...AHEAD
OF SHARP UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK
RIDGING REMAINS DISPLACED SOUTHWARD ALONG ROUGHLY 23N/24N EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. BY TUE...HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SE
UNITED STATES. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND ALLOWING INCREASING
N-NE FLOW W OF THE TROUGHING WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BY
WED MORNING PERSISTING INTO EARLY TUE AS THE TROUGHING LINGERS
OVER THE NW PORTION. THESE WINDS AND FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7-8
FT OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK HIGH PRES
ELSEWHERE WILL MAINTAIN MODEST WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.