000
AGXX40 KNHC 201745
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS.

SHARP UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS THE SE GULF TO THE NORTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE E CENTRAL GULF. THIS HAS SHUNTED MUCH
OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN GULF FARTHER E FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE KEEPING THE BASIN QUITE FREE OF ANY CONVECTION. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW GULF WILL SHIFT E THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
WEAKEN BY EARLY MON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT STALLS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH LATE MON.
THE WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE GULF WILL ALLOW GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH MID WEEK. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL OUTPUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS.

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
DIMINISHED TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND TROPICAL N
ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED OFF COLOMBIA WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. 
SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
THU...DRIFTING NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN THROUGH FRI.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. AN 1430 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS N OF 27N W OF 70W...WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN. THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE TO E THROUGH MON LIKELY
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW NEAR 35N70W. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND THE COMBINED EFFECT WILL
BE INCREASING N-NE FLOW W OF THE TROUGHING WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS BY WED MORNING PERSISTING INTO EARLY TUE AS THE
TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE NW PORTION. THESE WINDS AND FETCH WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 7-9 FT OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WEAK HIGH PRES ELSEWHERE WILL MAINTAIN MODEST WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.