000
AGXX40 KNHC 191810
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS 
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SHARP UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE SE GULF... 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING TO W CUBA. A FEW SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF...WHILE MOST 
OF THE DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS 
BEEN SHUNTED EASTWARD. GENERALLY MODERATE NE TO E WINDS WITH 3 
TO 4 FT SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN THE 
SURFACE TROUGH AND A RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E OF 
THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES E. A WEAK RIDGE WILL 
BUILD S OVER THE N GULF WITH A FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN SETTING 
UP THROUGH MID WEEK. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS 
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS N OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN 
DIMINISHED TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND TROPICAL N 
ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED OFF COLOMBIA...WITH 
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND 
MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN IN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FCST FOR WAVES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 31N78W TO THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS. THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH 
MON...BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TO FCST WATERS 
N OF THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO 
THE POSITION OF THE LOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE GFS 
CONTINUES TO INITIALIZE WIND IMPACTS BETTER AND IS THE BASIS FOR 
THE FORECAST. A TRAILING TROUGH WILL FOLLOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
WATERS N OF 25N. A WEAK RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG ROUGHLY 24N E OF 
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE EXITING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A 
WEAK PRES PATTERN IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.