000 AGXX40 KNHC 190801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 401 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NE GULF TO THE SW GULF...SUPPORTING 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTERED OFF NAPLES FLORIDA ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE NE GULF...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS SHUNTED EASTWARD. GENERALLY MODERATE NE TO E WINDS WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE. THE LOW PRES AND TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN THEIR WAKE WITH A WEAK PRES PATTERN SETTING UP SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IS WEAKENING AND DISPLACING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS IS RESULTING IN DIMINISHED TRADES WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. RECENT BUOY DATA AND A 0240 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH PERSIST NEAR 31N78W. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE NOTED WELL EAST OF THE LOW PRES N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W IN A 02 UTC ASCAT PASS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO INTIALIZE THE WIND IMPACTS BETTER AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. A TRAILING TROUGH WILL FOLLOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N. WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG ROUGHLY 24N TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT OUT LEAVING A WEAK PRES PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING THE LOW PRES DEEPENING E OF THE CAROLINAS BY MID WEEK...SUPPORTING A PUSH OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TOWARD 31N...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING PUSH OF NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN THE WATERS EAST OF N FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.