000 AGXX40 KNHC 180805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 405 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM THE SW GULF TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 26N83W TO 22N91W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GENERALLY MODERATE NE TO E WINDS WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE. THE LOW PRES AND TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN THEIR WAKE WITH A WEAK PRES PATTERN SETTING UP SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IS WEAKENING AND DISPLACING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS IS RESULTING IN DIMINISHED TRADES WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. RECENT BUOY DATA AND A 0240 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH MANUAL EDITS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. ASSOCIATED LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING OFF E CENTRAL FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS SHOWING THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THIS LOW...BUT DIFFER A LITTLE IN DETAILS. THE FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GFS WITH MANUAL EDITS TO REFLECT UKMET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH SHOW THE LOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AS IT MOVES FROM E CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 31N75W THROUGH LATE SAT...AND N OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THE GFS INTIALIZED BETTER SHOWING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OR UKMET...AND FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.