000
AGXX40 KNHC 171808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH
MANUAL EDITS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL TURN MORE
POSITIVE TILT THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATION SHOW FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS LIE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
29N84W TO 25N85W TO 23N86W. THE STRONGER GFS AGREES BETTER WITH
OBSERVATIONS HERE THAN THE ECMWF. THE MODELS AGREE ON A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW TO MOVE NE FROM THE E GULF TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE SW N ATLANTIC THROUGH SAT. IT SEEMS REASONABLE.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
THE GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OR
LESS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGHING IN THE SW N ATLC WILL DETERMINE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE WINDS. THE GFS
IS PREFERRED IN THE SW N ATLC AND IN THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CARIBBEAN
AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
THE MODELS AGREE ON TURNING THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO POSITIVE TILT THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWERING SURFACE
PRESSURES OVER NW WATERS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE GFS IS FASTER...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE UKMET. ITS
COMPROMISE SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
DETAILS OF THE SURFACE PATTERN...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. 


$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.