000
AGXX40 KNHC 170719
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
319 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH
MANUAL EDITS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL TURN MORE POSITIVE
TILT TODAY. OBSERVATION SHOW FRESH EASTERLY WINDS LIE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N84W TO 27N86W TO
22N86W. THE STRONGER GFS AGREES BETTER WITH OBSERVATIONS HERE THAN
THE ECMWF. THE MODELS AGREE ON ALLOWING THE ENERGY LINGERING IN
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE E GULF THROUGH MON. THE
TROUGHING OVER THE E GULF SHOULD TEMPER THE DIURNAL TROUGHING THAT
MOVES W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY MON...THE UKMET BECOMES A FAST
OUTLIER WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND REACHING THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE GFS LIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE UKMET WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. IT SEEMS
REASONABLE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OR LESS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE EVOLUTION
OF THE TROUGHING IN THE SW N ATLC WILL DETERMINE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE WINDS. THE GFS IS
PREFERRED IN THE SW N ATLC AND IN THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS AGREE ON TURNING THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO POSITIVE TILT TODAY AND LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES OVER
NW WATERS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS
IS FASTER...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE UKMET. ITS COMPROMISE SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM PULLS NE IS TIED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION.
AGAIN...THE GFS WAS PREFERRED. 

 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.