000
AGXX40 KNHC 160705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
305 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH
MANUAL EDITS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL AMPLIFY AS IT
DRIFTS EASTWARD AND TURNS POSITIVE TILT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE EASTERLY WITH THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING...WITH THE GFS NO
LONGER AS STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS IN THE NE GULF AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS IS MORE
EASTERLY/FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...KEEPING WITH THE TREND. ITS
SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. THE TROUGHING OVER THE GULF SHOULD
TEMPER THE DIURNAL TROUGHING THAT MOVES W OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 0142Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG THE SW COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN THE NORTHERN
WINDWARD PASSAGE. NONE OF THE MODELS WERE STRONG ENOUGH IN EITHER
OF THESE LOCATIONS. MANUAL EDITS WERE USED TO ADJUST WINDS.

FROM TONIGHT ONWARD...THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGHING IN THE SW N
ATLC WILL DETERMINE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL
AS THE WINDS. THE GFS IS PREFERRED IN THE SW N ATLC AND IN THE
CARIBBEAN.
 
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
 
AS DESCRIBED IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION...A RECENT ASCAT PASS
SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE. SINCE NONE
OF THE MODELS WERE STRONG ENOUGH HERE...MANUAL EDITS WERE NEEDED.

AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE EASTERLY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SW N
ATLC FROM THE GULF. THE GFS IS THE MOST EASTERLY...KEEPING WITH
THE TREND. ITS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
BECOME MORE EVIDENT BY FRI WITH THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRES EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST. WHILE THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE A WET SYSTEM...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT
OVERALL. WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT FORECAST TO MEET ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.