000 AGXX40 KNHC 141859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN U.S. SW TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA SW TO 26N88W AND SW TO A 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 22N97W. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING S FROM THE MID-ATLC REGION TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF TSTM ACTIVITY...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FASHION...OVER MUCH OF THE SW AND CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS (ZONES 17,19 AND 23). THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 94W S OF 24N. IT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE SW GULF. CURRENT BUOY REPORTS INDICATE GENERALLY E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT WITH SOME REPORTS OF SLIGHTER HIGHER WINDS OF 15-20 KT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATED OIL RIG PLATFORMS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. HE BUOYS AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE THAT SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE NW GULF FROM 25N TO 28N W OF 94W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. THE LOW PRES IN THE SW GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE IN W TO NW DIRECTION CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT NOTED TSTM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THU WITH THIS ACTIVITY HAVING THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. STILL IT APPEARS...THAT THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...WILL PASS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA WED AND ACROSS THE SW GULF WED NIGHT AND THU. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO ITS NE SHOULD RESULT IN E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE WITH SEAS IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE TUE NIGHT AND INTO THE WED PERIOD. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN THU AND THU NIGHT... BUT MODELS AGREE THAT LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL TRANSITION TO A TROUGH THAT SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN GULF THU INTO FRI...WITH THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE W AS A WEAK LOW ON SAT. THE ECMWF AND UKMET KIND OF SUGGEST SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT TAKE A PORTION OF THE TROUGH AS A WEAK LOW TOWARDS THE FAR CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI AND SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE....THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FEATURES ARE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 78W/79W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT...AND ANOTHER JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W 10-15 KT. ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS TO THE N OF THE BASIN E OF ABOUT 71W. THE 1400 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED MOSTLY 20 KT E WIND VECTORS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER JUST TO THE W OF THESE WINDS THE SPEEDS PICK UP TO 25 KT FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W/79W IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE S OF JAMAICA AND CUBA THROUGH EARLY TUE...AND REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL ENTER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THIS WAVE HAS GOOD SATELLITE CLOUD SIGNATURE...AND THE 1400 UTC ASCAT PASS PICKED UP ON A CLEAR NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE...AND ALSO E OF THE WAVE TO NEAR 57W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT BEHIND IT WILL HELP INDUCE INCREASING TRADE WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BASIN...OTHERWISE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WEAKENS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR 31N70W SW TO 29N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N78W SSW TO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE. LATEST BUOY AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW RATHER LOW SEAS...IN THE 1-3 RANGE THROUGHOUT. THE 1358 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS S OF 24N E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT...AND GENTLE SE-S WINDS ELSEWHERE E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE FRONT CONTINUING TO SLOW DOWN WHILE WEAKENING FURTHER THROUGH TUE. AS MID-ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS INTO THU. A WEAK TROUGH...WHAT WAS FORMERLY THE REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE OF GRACE...IS APPROACHING THE SE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BE ATTENDED BY INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THU THROUGH SAT AS A TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN KEEPING AND INDUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.