000 AGXX40 KNHC 120555 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE ON CARRYING A FRESH SW BREEZE OVER THE NE GULF LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING PUSHING E-SE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS HERE. THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE N CENTRAL GULF AROUND 06Z. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON WINDS PULSING TO A FRESH BREEZE THERE AND WEAKENING AS THE FRONT SETTLES S OF 28N. BY SUN NIGHT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND DEVELOPS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 23N97W THAT QUICKLY MOVES INLAND. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE UKMET/ECMWF HERE AS THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS TOWARD A WEAKER SYSTEM. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUE...LEAVING HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND BEGIN TO REFLECT AT THE SURFACE...POSSIBLY GENERATING A FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE IN THE EASTERN GULF WED. THE GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W-NW INTO THE SW GULF WATERS DURING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THE STRONGER GFS SEEMS REASONABLE HERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 0124Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WINDS JUST SE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GRACE. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE STRONG ENOUGH HERE. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THIS WAVE...EXCEPT BEEFED UP THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO TRACK A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE W-NW WITH THE WAVE TODAY. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGING N OF THE AREA DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH MON. AFTER THIS TIME...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNSURE. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS TO CARRY A LOW PRES SYSTEM TOWARD THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE 00Z UKMET IS THE STRONGEST AND MOST WESTERLY SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE ON SOMETHING WEAKER THAT REMAINS E OF 50W THROUGH WED. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE HERE. IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON BUILDING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...WITH THE GENERALLY MORE RELIABLE GFS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND CARRYING A LARGER AREA MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS HERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z GFS CARRIES STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER PUERTO RICO PASSES THROUGH THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THE GFS GENERALLY PERFORMS BETTER HERE UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. ITS SOLUTION WAS USED HERE. ELSEWHERE...THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET AGREE ON A FRESH SW BREEZE AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING MOVING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST LATER TODAY. THIS IS STRONGER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A STRONGER SOLUTION HERE. BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET ALLOW WINDS TO BUILD TO FRESH TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUN. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE GRIDS TO SHOW THIS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS/UKMET THROUGH MON WHEN IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN...STRETCHED FROM 31N71W TO 27N81W IN THE GFS MON MORN. ALL OF THE MODEL DISSIPATE THE FRONT MON NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES OVERTAKES THE AREA TUE AND WED...EXCEPT IN THE CMC MODEL WHICH DEVELOPS A LOW N OF THE BAHAMAS WHILE SEEMS UNLIKELY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.