000 AGXX40 KNHC 111836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 236 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US TO NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL DIG SE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INITIAL MAIN COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SW GULF OVER MEXICO TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL ACCOMPANY THE AND RESIDE WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SUPPORTING THE FRONTS FOLLOWING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MAIN COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THAT A TOPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INTERACT WITH THE DECAYING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK TO HELP DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE GFS PREFERENCE...ANY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE SW GULF WILL BE WEAK AND SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE OVER MEXICO BY WED. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W-NW INTO THE SW GULF WATERS DURING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE AFTER SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING IN THE REGION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 1320Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FROM 16.6N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 62W AT 1200Z. THE GFS FORECASTS THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W TO WNW AFFECTING WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THROUGH SUN. IN ADDITION...MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND OFFSHORE WATERS MAINLY WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES N OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGING ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC NEAR 35W IS FORECAST TO DRIVE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN US COAST WILL FORCE THE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC TO WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLC RIDGE TO EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST TUESDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TRADE WINDS OVER THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG 26W TO THE FL PENINSULA. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH ALSO CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF GRACE WILL APPROACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE LOW ALONG THE US EAST COAST LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA INDUCING EASTERLY TRADES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO WITH THE ABOVE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.