000 AGXX40 KNHC 100506 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 106 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A VERY NARROW MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY E TO A POSITION FROM EXTREME NW FL TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION AND THIS WILL BE DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N84W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WNW TO THE NE TX COAST. EXPECT 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25N EXCEPT INCREASING TO SE-S 10-15 KT ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL WATERS TO THE W OF 95W DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E ON FRI ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS AND MOVE E ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE THIS FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO BE STRONGER...AND WILL PUSH THE FRONT E OF THE GULF AND ACROSS N FL LATE SUN. ADDITIONALLY THE INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT NE 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE GULF N OF 26NW OF 90W ON SUN....DIMINISHING TO ENE 10-15 KT BY EARLY MON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF ON TUE. FURTHER S...AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...GENERALLY TO THE S OF 22N BETWEEN 90-93W DURING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...REACHING ALONG 94- 95W DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E- SE 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL EVENTS TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT...THEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER...15-20 KT...EVENTS TO BEGIN ON SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE THE S- CENTRAL WATERS...EXCEPT STRONG TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST THIS MORNING...BUILDING COMBINED SEAS TO 7-10 FT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX ON TODAY SUPPORTING ONLY 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL EVENTS...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT FORMING WITHIN 30 NM OF THE EXTREME N COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON MON NIGHT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FAR N COAST OF COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT INTO FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN TODAY... THEN PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TONIGHT INTO FRI...AND PASS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE GRACE WILL ARRIVE NEAR 15N55W EARLY TODAY...REACH THE LEEWARDS EARLY FRI...AND REACH NEAR PUERTO RICO ON FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS HENRI WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N OF 31N EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HENRI LIFTS N IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH..OR WEAK COLD FRONT...E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 57-65W ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-W NW 15-25 KT WIND SHIFT. A SURFACE HIGH IS AT 28N74W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO FORT PIERCE FL...AND A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 25N68W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY E TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOSE IDENTITY EARLY FRI WITH A MORE DOMINATE RIDGE BUILD W ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 27-28N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A PSN FROM 31N57W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SAT NIGHT. SW FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SAT...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AHEAD A OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST AROUND SUNRISE ON SUN WITH THE POST FRONTAL FLOW DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY MON...THEN DRIFT W THROUGH MON NIGHT. EXPECT E-SE 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT INCREASING TO E AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE EVENINGS. THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS WELL E OF THE LEEWARDS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANT TROUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE GRACE PASSES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE VIRGIN ISLAND AREA FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.