000 AGXX40 KNHC 051820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A MID LEVEL TOUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NE FL SW TO 24N87W TO NEAR 23N94W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED S OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 26N E OF 88W. A 1016 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 27N88W KEEPING A GENERAL WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY GENTLE SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE MAINLY NW-N WINDS N OF 28N E OF 90W. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 3-4 FT SEAS S OF 24N W OF 92W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD TO NEAR 28N92W. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE HIGH SE TO THE FL STRAITS...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TX COAST. A TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUTS OFFSHORE S FLORIDA TO NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL PUSH SEWD REACHING FROM THE BAHAMA CHANNEL TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT NW ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN...AND SHIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE W-CENTRAL FL COAST ON MON. IT IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY BY TUE AS WEAK HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF INTO THU. SE-S FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT THE FAR NE PART BY TUE AS HIGH PRES FROM THE ATLC EXTENDS FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...GENERALLY TO THE S OF 22N BETWEEN 9W0-93W DURING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...REACHING ALONG 94-95W DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL EVENTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NOCTURNAL TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND ALSO ALONG THE FAR NW COAST OF VENEZUELA. NE-E SWELLS WILL GENERATE COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT AS FAR W AS 13N78W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN COMBINED SEAS OF ONLY 4-7 FT ARE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS FROM SUN-WED. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 68W WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH SUN...AND PASS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN EVENING. THE WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT ...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU. EXPECT A MODERATE-FRESH NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT NEAR THE WAVES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED LATEST MWW3 INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK RIDGE NEAR 23N E OF THE BAHAMAS. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N72W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE SE FL COAST. THE LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS N OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN THROUGH SUN...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH ALONG 80W ON MON...AND MOVE INLAND FL ON MON NIGHT. BY THEN A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NEAR 26N65W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT N TO NEAR 29N69W ON TUE NIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO VICINITY OF PORT CANAVERAL. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT W TO NEAR 28N75W ON WED AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THU. EXPECT E-SE 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF THE RIDGE EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT...OTHERWISE 5-10 KT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AND LOW AND TROUGH. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.