000 AGXX40 KNHC 301803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 203 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A TROUGH...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA...IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO A 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 25N82W TO 23N84W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS S OF 26N E OF 84W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND REGIONAL WATERS ESPECIALLY NEAR TSTMS AND SQUALLY WEATHER. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE THE LOW PRES WILL REACH A POSITION NEAR 27N85W BY MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE NO SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH LATE TUE BEFORE DRIFTING NE AND INLAND WED. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ACROSS THE N GULF WED TO PRODUCE MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS S HALF OF BASIN AND ALLOW FOR YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO SET UP EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. AN INVERTED TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SOMEWHAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH OF ERIKA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JUST W OF TROUGH N OF 21N. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 11 FT BASED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS. BUOY 42058 LOCATED NEAR 15N75W CONTINUES TO REPORT SEAS TO 10 FT. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED 20-25 KT TRADES EXTENDING FROM S COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 11-12N WITH 30 KT WINDS OF NE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND INSIDE GULF OF VENEZUELA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W/67W WILL CONTINUE W AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W/52W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON MON REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIEWS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIEWS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND A 1022 MB HIGH PRES SITUATED NEAR 32N68W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE-S WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...PARTICULARLY N OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU...WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA. TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WILL BRUSH THE FAR SRN WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.