000 AGXX40 KNHC 270720 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W TO THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N94W. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN SE-S OF THE FRONT TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SUBDUED ACROSS THE GULF WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON WILL BE THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...NOW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES WNW TOWARD OR OVER THE BAHAMAS. AS FOR THE TRACK...GLOBAL MODELS TRENDED TO THE RIGHT YESTERDAY AWAY FROM THE SE GULF...HOWEVER THE NEW 00 UTC ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE SE GULF WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. WITH A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EVENTUAL PATH OF ERIKA. AT ANY RATE IT IS PLAUSIBLE TO EXPECT FRESH OR EVEN STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF MON AS ERIKA MAKES ITS CLOSET POINT OF APPROACH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...LOW TO MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.8W 1006 MB AT 2 AM EDT APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING OVER OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN NEAR OR JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI. FOR NOW THE MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN AND OF COURSE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 12N. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE REMNANTS OF DANNY MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF RELATIVE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS NOTED IN OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES WHICH MEASURED ONLY 10-20 KT WINDS NEAR THE TYPICAL HOT SPOT OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 15-20 KT IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS INDICATING A BRIEF RETURN TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI NIGHT AS RIDGING FOLLOWS IN THE EVENTUAL WAKE OF ERIKA...PERSISTING THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA TO ACROSS SW FLORIDA NEAR MARCO ISLAND. THIS TROUGH IS LOCATED AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PARKED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM E-SE OF THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N60W WESTWARD TO NEAR 30N76W. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION MAINLY MODERATE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 65W EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE NE WATERS CLOSE TO THE HIGH CENTER. SEAS ARE 3-6 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF 65W. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.8W 1006 MB AT 2 AM EDT APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALREADY SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS ZONE AMZ127 WHERE SEAS ARE 8-12 FT AS REPORTED BY NDBC BUOY 41044 LOCATED AT 21.6N58.6W AND BY AN EARLY ALTIMETER PASS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING OVER OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN NEAR OR JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI...THEN ACROSS OR NEAR THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE LEFT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THUS WITH A DISCREPANCY IN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.