000 AGXX40 KNHC 260736 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 336 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM. A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM EASTERN APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30-45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE A LITTLE MORE FORWARD PROGRESS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES IT TO THE SE WITH THE FRONT REACHING FORM NEAR 29N83W TO 25N87W TO 24N94W WHERE IT WILL STALL BY EARLY THU. EXPECT MODERATE N-NE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. AN ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 22N. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE E OF THE TROUGH AND W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS MOVED INTO THE AREA...HAVING SINCE DISSIPATED. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY LATER THIS MORNING. BROAD TROUGHING IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE SE GULF WHERE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE PRESENT...LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD S AND SW FLORIDA. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A SURFACE TROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MEANWHILE THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W-NW AS A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 29N88W TO 20N92W BY SAT MORNING...DISSIPATING BY SAT EVENING. CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY HIGH PRES RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MAKE A RETURN JUST N OF THE GULF ALLOWING FOR MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW TO DOMINATE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IS PRESENT WITH REGARD TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM OR OPEN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SE GULF SUN...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH IT REMAINING E OF THE GULF BASIN. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST (AS OF 03 UTC) ALSO KEEPS ERIKA E OF THE BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN... LOW TO MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...MOVING OVER OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THU AND THU NIGHT... THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI. FOR NOW THE MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN AND OF COURSE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH ARE MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACCOMPANYING IT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE W-NW REACHING CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI MORNING...THEN MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN SAT. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS REPORTED LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT...WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UP TO 25 KT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL HELP TO KEEP THE PRES GRADIENT WEAK ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN ITS WAKE RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS STARTING WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES SETTING UP IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS SAT NIGHT...PROPAGATING WESTWARD TO N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. THE GRADIENT IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS FROM 31N70W TO 27N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 65W ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST NW OF THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SNEAKING INTO THE NW CORNER BY THU MORNING WHERE IT MAY LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS ALREADY RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN ZONE AMZ127 PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE CURRENT NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES ERIKA ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...THEN ACROSS OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THU THROUGH THU NIGHT...NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS FRI NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE LATEST GFS SHOWING A WEAK SYSTEM OR EVEN OPEN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH STAYS MORE TO THE N. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE BE SURE TO CONTINUE TO CHECK HURRICANES.GOV FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND OFFICIAL FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU NIGHT. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.