000 AGXX40 KNHC 251839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 30N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES ON TO NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS FAIRLY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE N CENTRAL GULF THEN TO THE FAR SW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AT THE BASE OF TROUGH OFF VERACRUZ THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH BUOYS INDICATING ONLY AROUND 1 TO 3 FT IN MOST AREAS. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STALLING FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY THU...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NE GULF AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT. MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANT TROUGH OF DANNY...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF FRI. SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...RANGING 1 TO 3 FT FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN... MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC. ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSIST OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS AS THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF DANNY MOVE NW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS BEING ANALYZED AS A TROUGH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA PERSISTS ABOUT 700 NM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE LOOKING SOMEWHAT WEAKER RECENTLY...ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WNW...REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY THU. WHILE THIS STORM APPEARS TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WEAKENING AS FAR AS ITS PRESENTATION ON VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 12 UTC INDICATED THAT THERE WERE STILL FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AROUND ERIKA...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT REACHING AS FAR AS 270 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...IN CONTRAST TO THE VERY SMALL DANNY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ERIKA...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST BULLETIN FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WTNT25 KNHC/TMCAT5 AND AT HURRICANES.GOV. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN IMPACT AREA AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO THE EAST OF LEEWARDS...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN DUE TO THE TRACK OF DANNY AND NOW ERIKA TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WEAKENING AND DISPLACING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED TRADE WINDS WERE ONLY AROUND 20 KT OFF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT OVER MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THU. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF ERIKA...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS BY FRI...SHIFTING WEST TO NE COLOMBIA BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 10 FT BY LATE SAT OFF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS FROM 30N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE ALONG THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE FARTHER NORTH...N OF GRAND BAHAMA ALONG 78W...AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...CURRENTLY AROUND 700 NM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI...BUT THERE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE SO FAR ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA. LINGERS ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N66W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING REGAINS CONTROL OF THE BASIN. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH WINDS. RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ERIKA...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST BULLETIN FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WTNT25 KNHC/TMCAT5 AND AT HURRICANES.GOV. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.