000
AGXX40 KNHC 241800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH 
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH TUE AND 
REMAIN WEAK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. 
LATE TONIGHT AND STALL ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHERN 
GULF THROUGH WED BEFORE DISSIPATING WED NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND OF 
FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N87W IN THE NE GULF THROUGH WED. OTHERWISE... 
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
REGION THROUGH FRI.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS AND SEAS. MODERATE 
CONFIDENCE.

THE REMNANTS OF DANNY MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE 
NE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY S 
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH WED...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN 
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. AN AREA 
OF LOW PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 14.5N45W IS CONSIDERED TO 
HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS 55W TUE 
AFTERNOON AND BRING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO TROPICAL N 
ATLC WATERS N OF 15N TUE NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER 
ANTILLES WED AND THU. A WEAKER N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF 
THE BASIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OFF THE COAST 
OF N COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 7 FT THROUGH SAT. 
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS AND SEAS. MODERATE 
CONFIDENCE.

THE REMNANTS OF DANNY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES S OF 
SOUTHERN WATERS AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. AN AREA OF LOW PRES 
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 14.5N45W IS CONSIDERED TO HAVE A HIGH 
PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A LARGE AREA 
OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE EXTENDING UP 
TO 300 NM N OF THE LOW. AN ASCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED 30 KT 
WINDS SE OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEEP 
CONVECTION IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...PREVENTING THE 
SYSTEM FROM CONSOLIDATING INTO A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL LOW. THE 
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS 55W TUE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO MARINE 
ZONE AMZ127 NE OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...THEN ACROSS 
SOUTHERN WATERS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT. EXPECT 
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO REMAIN N OF THE SURFACE LOW EVEN 
IF THE DISTURBANCE FAILS TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR WEAKEN 
BACK TO A WAVE AFTER BECOMING ONE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.