000 AGXX40 KNHC 240531 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 131 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH LATEST ECMWF. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES 1018 MB OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N90W OFF THE S CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WILL MOVE TO THE W REACHING THE TEXAS COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE U.S. GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERING THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF BY 00 UTC TUE RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE NE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE THE FRONT STALLS OUT ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NE FLOW AND 1-3 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH LATEST ECMWF. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. DANNY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AROUND SUNRISE...MOVING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...PASSING S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT (MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING)...WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW BY EARLY TUE MORNING. EXPECT SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PRIMARILY IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. OTHERWISE... LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES AND 1-3 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG RIGHT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AS WELL IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THROUGH THU MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN ACROSS THIS AREA THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE BEHIND DANNY WILL APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE...BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS TO THE WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS IN ITS WAKE IN THE E CARIBBEAN AS WELL THU NIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH LATEST ECMWF. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM WITH REGARD TO APPROACHING LOW PRES/TROPICAL WAVE. SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM NEAR 27N65W TO THE SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN... EXCEPT S OF THE TROUGH E OF 70W WHERE E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS PERSIST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE W-NW THROUGH THE EVENING... DISSIPATING BY TUE MORNING AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES REBUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20-25 KT ALONG THE N SHORE OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AS DANNY PASSES BY S OF THE ISLANDS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING. THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 65W THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE AND AN ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW PRES...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL MOVE TOWARD AMZ127 BY EARLY TUE MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO AT LEAST 25 KT ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO AMZ125 N OF PUERTO RICO BY THU MORNING...THEN INTO AMZ123 N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL THEN LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARD SE FLORIDA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE LOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THEN ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.