000 AGXX40 KNHC 231857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH PRES 1018 MB REMAINS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WHERE IT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER. MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...AND MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH MON. BY LATE MON THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT TO THE W TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR N-NE 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN TROUGH MID-WEEK...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK S AND APPROACH CENTRAL GULF COASTS TUE MORNING...DRIFT S INTO THE N COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY AND REACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF TUE WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS PRESENTLY MOVING MORE WESTERLY AND RECENT STLT IMAGERY REVEALS THE LLCC HAS POPPED OUT OF THE CDO AND BECOME EXPOSED TO THE SW. THE ADVERTISED WEAKENING TREND IS OCCURRING AND A TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE MAY BECOME MORE APPROPRIATE. DANNY MOVED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER BUOY 41300 WHICH PEAKED WITH A REPORTED 15 FT SEAS...BUT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN THE MAX SWH. SQUALLS AND LINES OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES IN NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHIFT WWD ACROSS THE NE CARIB THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING WITH DANNY...AND ONLY SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT OF FORECAST IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES NOW CONFINED ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS S OF 14N PER RECENT ASCAT PASSES. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TONIGHT BEFORE PRES GRADIENT DECREASES NEXT FEW DAYS AND PEAK SEAS FALL BELOW 8 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THU. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE BEHIND DANNY WILL APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE...BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS TO THE WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. DEEP LAYERED AND VIGOROUS UPPER CYCLONE JUST NW OF BERMUDA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NWD TODAY...WITH ELONGATED LLVL TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH 3163W TO NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH A COUPLE OF SECONDARY LLVL LOW ABOUT THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS SE PORTIONS TODAY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS NW PORTIONS...AND VARY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN. THE SFC TROUGHING WILL LINGER AND IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TO THE W-NW THROUGH TUE AS THE PARENT UPPER LIFT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT....BEFORE DISSIPATING BY WED AS THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN SETTING UP ALONG 27N/28N BY WED MORNING...LIFTING TO 29N/30N BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN TO 31N BY FRI AFTERNOON. SHOULD WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM WARNING DANNY MOVE SLIGHTLY MORE WWD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND LARGELY THROUGH THE NE CARIB...WINDS TO THE N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND FAR SE PORTIONS MAY NOT REACH 25 KT AND 8 FT. REGARDLESS...INCREASED WINDS SEAS AND WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF DANNY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION NEXT 3 DAYS...AND MAY EMERGE OFF OF NE CUBA WED TO AFFECT THE WATERS W OF BAHAMAS. AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.