000 AGXX40 KNHC 230544 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 144 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES 1018 MB REMAINS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N88W WHERE IT WILL CONTIUNE TO MEANDER. MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...AND MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. BY LATE MON THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT TO THE W TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR N-NE 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN TROUGH MID-WEEK...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO THE NE GULF TUE WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS APPROACHING 55W. THE STORM REMAINS VERY COMPACT AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES ONLY SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS JUST W OF THE STORM IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. DANNY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED TSTMS IMPACTING NICARAGUA AND AMZ021 TO THE E. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MODEARTE TO LOCALLY FRESH ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE BEHIND DANNY WILL APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY TUE...BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS TO THE WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN FROM 27N65W TO 24N74W. WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH ARE LIGHT AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES...AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN WAINING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE TROUGHING WILL LINGER AND IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TO THE W-NW THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN SETTING UP ALONG 27N/28N BY WED MORNING...LIFTING TO 29N/30N BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN TO 31N BY FRI AFTERNOON. WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN NEAR OR JUST N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON... APPROACHING THE SE BAHAMAS WED NIGHT WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW OR OPEN UP INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.