000 AGXX40 KNHC 221900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SONG REMAINS THE SAME...1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IS MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH MODERATE SLY FLOW MUCH OF W AND NW PORTIONSYIELDING PEAK SEAS OF 4 FT OFFSHORE OF SE TEXAS...POSSIBLY TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...TO THE E AND NE OF A TUTT LOW DRIFTING W ACROSS SW GULF. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A SLOW W-NW PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SHIFTING WNW TO ALONG TEXAS COAST MON-TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW ACROSS WRN ATLC HAS CARVED A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS...AND EFFECTIVELY KILLED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN...WITH RECENT SCAT PASS SHOWING MODERATE TRADES S OF 16N ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AND S OF 14N ACROSS E PART. REDUCED TRADES WITH NOCTURNAL PULSING TO AROUND 25 KT EACH NIGHT OFF OF NW VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THROUGH MON NIGHT AS DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE DANNY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UNDER SWLY SHEAR...AND LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY HAVE TAKEN A GOOD NW JUMP PAST 6 HOURS. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THIS SMALL SYSTEM...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE W-NW AND ACROSS NRN LEEWARDS THEN GREATER ANTILLES MON-TUE. SMALL SIZE AND SLOWER MOTION OF DANNY YIELDING A SMALL WAVE FIELD AND SEAS ABOVE 8 FT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN 120 NM OR SO OF DANNY AS IT ENTERS NE CARIB MON. INVERTED TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF DANNY MAY IN FACT BE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WAVE IT ORIGINATED FROM...AND IS CURRENTLY DRY AND BENIGN BUT MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE LLVL CONVERGENCE AS IT MOVES THROUGH CARIB NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT WAVE BEHIND DANNY WILL APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY TUE...BRINING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS TO WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. VIGOROUS DEEP LAYERED LOW JUST NW OF BERMUDA HAS CARVED OUT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LOWS WITHIN THE ELONGATED SURFACE THROUGH EXTENDING DIAGONALLY SW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA. THIS HAS COMPLETELY INTERRUPTED RIDGING AND TRADES ACROSS SE PORTIONS...WITH GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE EXTENDING E TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS DEEP LAYERED LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA SUN THROUGH MON WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTING N AND OUT OF AREA MON-TUE...WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG ATLC RIDGING TO BUILD BACK SW FROM NE ATLC INTO S CENTRAL BAHAMAS. DANNY OR ITS REMNANTS WILL IMPACT THE GREATER ANTILLES TUE- WED...HOPEFULLY WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND MODEST WIND. NARROW SWATH OF ESE SWELL FROM DANNY WILL MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS TUE AND WED...WITH NEXT LARGE TROPICAL WAVE AND BIG WIND FIELD TO SPREAD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL INTO THE SE WATERS BY MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.