000 AGXX40 KNHC 220804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 404 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IS MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE SE GULF THIS MORNING...TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHERE THE NIGHTLY THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A SLOW W-NW PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SHIFTING WNW TO ALONG TEXAS COAST MON- TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE DANNY IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH SW SHEAR...BUT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM...THEN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE TUE. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY SMALL CYCLONE WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A SMALL AREA OF HIGH WINDS AND LARGE SEAS. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE DETAILS...INCLUDING THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AND THE OFFICIAL REASONING. ELSEWHERE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND WILL REACH THE COASTLINES OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUALATER TODAY...THEN PASS WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE PRESENCE OF WHAT COULD BE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO DANNY...BUT SHOWING UP WELL IN GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MOVING FASTER AND FARTHER WEST THAN DANNY THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WOULD BE IN PHASE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF AN ELONGATED TUTT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND REACHING WESTWARD THROUGH HISPANIOLA. THE MAIN IMPACT ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN OF THE MOVEMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE/TROUGH ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF DANNY INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WOULD BE LIMIT TRADE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY TUE...BRINING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS TO THE AREA E OF THE LEEWARDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHARP AND VIGOROUS DEEP LAYERED LOW JUST N OF BERMUDA HAS CARVED OUT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED LOWS WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS HAS COMPLETELY INTERRUPTED RIDGING AND TRADES ACROSS SE PORTIONS...WITH GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA SUN-MON AND ALLOW STRONG RIDGING TO BUILD BACK SW FROM NE ATLC INTO S HALF OF BAHAMAS. REMNANTS OF DANNY WILL IMPACT THE GREATER ANTILLES TUE-WED...HOPEFULLY WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND MODEST WIND. NARROW SWATH OF ESE SWELL FROM DANNY WILL MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS TUE AND WED...WITH NEXT LARGE TROPICAL WAVE AND BIG WIND FIELD TO SPREAD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL INTO THE SE WATERS BY MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.