000 AGXX40 KNHC 200617 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 217 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN HAS MOVED INTO THE SW GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE E GULF AND 3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MON. ALSO EXPECT A REGULAR PATTERN OF A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN MOVING W INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FRESH TRADES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E AND W CARIBBEAN... AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-7 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-5 FT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...3-6 FT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND FRI. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND DECREASE WINDS OVER THIS AREA. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS DUE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE DETAILS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...2-3 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY. THIS WILL ENABLE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING MID- LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN WATERS. THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER NE WATERS THROUGH SAT BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.