000 AGXX40 KNHC 191841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST OBS SHOW GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE E GULF...2-3 FT OVER THE SW GULF...AND 3-4 FT OVER THE NW GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT A REGULAR PATTERN OF A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN MOVING W INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LATEST OBS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WIND WARD ISLANDS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON WINDS AND SEAS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RELATED TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS TROPICAL STORM DANNY REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS A HURRICANE SUN. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE DETAILS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST OBS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THU. THIS WILL ENABLE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN WATERS. THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER NE WATERS THROUGH SAT BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.