000
AGXX40 KNHC 181802
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. OBS DATA 
SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF AND LIGHT TO 
GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF AND 
1-2 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER 
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT. ALSO EXPECT A REGULAR PATTERN OF A 
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN MOVING W 
INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF 
EACH MORNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. 
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE OBS INDICATE FRESH-STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE-FRESH TRADES IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN... 
MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC 
WATERS...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 
SEAS ARE 7-9 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-6 FT ACROSS 
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
AND 2-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH 4-6 FT SEAS IN THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC 
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS FORECAST WATERS THROUGH SAT WITH LITTLE 
AFFECT ON WINDS AND SEAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IN THE ATLC 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY THE NEXT 5 DAYS 
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY WED AND A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT 
APPROACHES THE TROPICAL N ATLC. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS 
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE DETAILS.
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
 
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST OBS DATA 
SHOWS GENTLE-MODERATE WINDS IN SOUTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT-GENTLE 
WINDS OVER NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4-5 FT IN SOUTHERN WATERS...3-4 
FT OVER NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT W OF BAHAMAS. A RIDGE WILL 
PREVAIL OVER NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL 
SHIFT SOUTHWARD THU AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST MOVES INTO 
NORTHERN WATERS. THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER NE WATERS THROUGH SAT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.