000
AGXX40 KNHC 171810
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE N GULF WILL PREVAIL 
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT...WINDS ACROSS THE 
REGION WILL BECOME SE TO S IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE W 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS AND SEAS AREA EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE IN THE W GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...WITH SEAS 
BECOMING 3-6 FT BY THU. EXPECT A REGULAR PATTERN OF A THERMAL 
TROUGH DEVELOPING EACH EVENING OVER YUCATAN MOVING W INTO THE SW 
GULF AT NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. 
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN N 
OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THROUGH FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W 
WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS LATE TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL REACH THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT...CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE 
TUE...AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU. A TROPICAL LOW SW 
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALONG 32W WILL 
APPROACH TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE FRI OR SAT. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE 
SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE 
FORECAST AREA. 
  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. 
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
 
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR E CUBA ALONG 77W 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRES BUILDING W 
OVER NORTHERN WATERS WILL ESTABLISH A RIDGE ALONG 30N THROUGH 
THU. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A 
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. LATE 
THU DEVELOPING OVER NE WATERS BETWEEN 65W-70W ON FRI...THEN 
DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.